fatlone’s view: 卡姆丹克有望成為本輪行業淘汰賽下的贏家

Posted on 26 五月, 2011 by fatlone

首先, 請看看以下兩篇消息:

Solar Subsidies and Why They’re So Important

(source: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/05/17/solar-subsidies-and-why-theyre-so-important.aspx)

2011年光伏市場增速減半?小型項目或受寵

(source: http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110510/KDWS9D0KCVJ42.shtml)

看畢上面的消息, 帶出一個重要訊息, 就正如第二篇的標題: 小型項目或受寵

我認為這個最新趨向是中國高質單晶之王卡姆丹克的一個潛在利好

這個最新趨向是大砍大型項目的補貼, 而小型或家用項目降幅明顯較低, 甚至維持不變

代表做小型項目的業者的利潤空間有機會沒想象中壓縮得那樣嚴重, 我甚至認為做終端市場的會因為製造商大降價而增加獲利, 不過那是當地業者的事

單晶是硅晶光伏中比較昂貴的種類, 主力市場應該是面向土地資源有限的地區, 主要都是會放在屋頂上, 這些地方首要考量不是最平的每瓦成本, 而是在有限的地方發出最高的電能, 單晶模組的優勢此刻就可以發揮出來

單晶模組的需求應該可以保持, 甚至可能有驚喜, 因為現時模組價格跌幅可以追得上小型項目補貼下砍的幅度, 相反, 大型項目情況較惡劣

我會視這個方向為卡姆丹克的潛在利好, 主要原因是我不知道卡姆丹克的客戶在小型項目市場所佔的份額情況如何

再推論下去, 小型項目市場的贏家需要有強大的銷售通路, 那些具知名度的業者, 如世界杯時大家都見到的yingli, 是其中之一

我想指出一個潛在危機, 這是中國廠商要面對的危機, 因為我看到有報道指有國家會對使用中國廠商製造的產品的承建商減少10%的補貼, 面對這個情況, 中國會如何應對? 我不知道會否對卡姆丹克做成影響

其實, 卡姆丹克和sunpower搞n-type方面的認證, 可能為卡姆丹克帶來新契機

我相信搞認證就是準備要將公司的產品向sunpower銷售, 而sunpower在高效能模組有一定市場地位, 而在美國更是數一數二(sunpower是美國公司), 如果卡姆丹克可以和西方一線廠商建立關係, 日後再有這些針對中國廠家的措施, 卡姆丹克有機會不用「完全硬食」

再講, 踏出第一步之後, 就有機會陸續跟更多西方一線業者合作, 擴大客戶基礎, 無論是風險管理上, 還是對公司的知名度, 都有正面影響

以上的看法, 全部都是一些推測, 沒有實質證據支持, 可能是我自己憑空想像一些利好, 去自我滿足我看好卡姆丹克的原因

而且, 我雖然此刻寫有關712的潛在利好, 並不代表現在就要買入, 以走勢來看, 我仍然是抱著觀望態度

但是, 接近3元的卡姆丹克, 的確可以買一點兒在倉底貨, 在卡姆丹克的歷史低水平是介乎於1.2至1.5, 現在卡姆丹克已經由當時的200MW產能成長至現時的600MW, 再外加10億資金和TPG的關係, 我個人看, 底部上移一倍, 至2.4至3元, 是很合理的, 這就是我現時712最新底部的區間, 一間成長中的公司, 其股價可以大跌, 但拉長來看, 是可以看得到是一浪高於一浪的勢態

不足三元的卡姆丹克, 我認為絕對有投資價值

再次提醒大家, 暫時不要大注撲入太陽能股, 因大市和板塊本身仍未有勢

本篇發表於 fatlone's view, 卡姆丹克, 太陽能 並標籤為 , , 。將永久鏈結加入書籤。

31 Responses to fatlone’s view: 卡姆丹克有望成為本輪行業淘汰賽下的贏家

  1. Gary 說道：
    27 五月, 2011 於 11:39 上午

    yes, $3 好抵, 我都開始報署下, 另外, 馬來西亞果間基金前幾日買左貨

    　　　　　卡姆丹克太陽能（００７１２）－股權變動紀錄　　　　　資料來源：聯交所
    　
    　　　　　　　股東名稱　　　　　　　　　日期　　　　好倉數量增減（萬）　百分比（％）
    －－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
    Ｐｕｂｌｉｃ　Ｍｕｔｕａｌ　　　　２０╱０５╱１１　＋　　　　２００　＋　　０﹒１７
    　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　（場內平均價：３﹒４１２港元）

    回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      27 五月, 2011 於 4:41 下午

      其實佢今鋪都蝕好金, 可能短期內會做返個急跌之後既回檔, 樂觀小小去睇, 712可能已經見底, 不過幾時會上返去4蚊以上, 我覺得唔會係呢一季之內既事

      而我自己暫時對712既股價走勢看法係, 會在3-4蚊之間玩波幅, 最理想係波幅係一浪高於一浪, 即係3蚊做底, 可能上返3.5又落返去3.2,3.3, 之後可能下一個浪既頂又破到3.5咁上下

      策略係, 急升唔會追, 跌就細注買, 真係升左好多又無買到/買得好少, 錯過左就由得佢, 直至有更強力既消息確認轉勢, 到時一蚊幾毫既premium就豪畀佢, 最多同TPG一樣4.1先翻兜 🙂

      我自己既打法係咁, 因為我自己都有相當數量既712無賣, 追唔到都有貨在手

      回應
  2. david395 說道：
    27 五月, 2011 於 5:24 下午

    got an pay article can I sent you an email?

    回應
  3. david395 說道：
    28 五月, 2011 於 9:41 上午

    This session my stock portfolio are 1398 941 2828

    1• 恆指太多分股la 我認為國指會跑贏今年大市。所以2828 比較好。
    2• big account brother 推高941可推高大市

    回應
  4. David395 說道：
    29 五月, 2011 於 5:58 下午

    941 Best network in china 3G profit not fully explode

    回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      30 五月, 2011 於 2:31 下午

      david ching, but will u consider the mode of the 941’s 3G network is TD-SCDMA, which lags the support from the flagship phones of the manufacturers

      may be 941 will start its uptrend when apple confirm the release of the td-scdma mode iphone, or the android group leaders like htc and moto will cooperate with 941

      just my 2 cents

      回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      30 五月, 2011 於 2:43 下午

      of course, tony is the one of the successful investors, but i would like to point out one thing, which may make his supporters disagree with me.

      i think his rationale and method to do stock-picking is correct, but i am quite sure that the stocks he recommended for quite a long time such as 941 and 5 will not bring us a very good fortune no matter in short or long term, these stocks cannot perform like they did in the past 10 or 20 yrs

      i welcome any of you to comment, i like discussing with you 🙂

      回應
  6. david395 說道：
    2 六月, 2011 於 6:04 下午

    昨天中移動又升0.40元，計入它剛剛除息1.60元，現價大約是71.30元，在最近的跌市中，抗跌力特強。高盛本星期一發表中移動的研究報告，極之看淡，大概有些大戶仍沒有入夠貨。大行的報告是不能太信的，常常是為了它們自己或它們的大客投資路向開路。為什麼高盛的報告有時也很準呢？當然不能抹煞它們的分析員有水平，但背後更主要的原因，是跟在它的報告後行動的資金非常大。高盛的報告能引發一種期望，而這種期望有時會自我實現。中移動現價P/E 8.3倍，息率4.3厘，手中握有超過千億現金，客戶數5億3千萬，絕對是一家基礎雄厚，無人可取代的好公司。網友ML君曾多次從技術上論述了中移動的長處和短處，非常高興有這樣高質素的網友。中移動當然不會一飛沖天，要有一定耐心，但它的市場潛質很快會被市場認同。
    再簡單提一句：移動通訊公司的ARPU每年都在降低，並不意味著這些公司的毛利大幅下降，其中通訊技術的進步，成本的下跌，對沖了很大部份ARPU的下滑。
    祇有像中國聯通那樣子的手機補貼，才令通訊公司盈利減。中國聯通現在是超貴的公司，我上次批評上市公司超貴，是比亞廸汽車，當時記得它的股價45元/股，昨天跌到了25元/股，仍是不值得揸，A股上市，它集到一批資本，但公司本身的結構性缺陷沒有改進。

    http://dpzblog.wordpress.com/category/%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E9%9A%A8%E7%AD%86/

    回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      3 六月, 2011 於 1:03 上午

      中移動確實係好過中人壽, 我好自然就會拎兩者比較, 兩間都係國家意旨下既產物, 不過941好疊水, 2628撈極都係咁既樣, 後者顯然係貴, 前者都至少有千億利潤+4厘以上股息(我自己買股唔太睇股息因素)+公司有巨量現金

      中移動係間好公司, 不過, 我只能講佢只係一間"體質好"既公司, 賺好多錢, 但已經唔能夠賺更多既錢

      要期望佢再次騰飛, 只可以用盈利增長話畀投資者知係要升返上去

      941我相信係有想像空間既, 因為佢呢幾年積落既巨額現金, 係發圍既一大資本

      我覺得大陸市場無乜得搞, 要走出國門先可以繼續增長落去

      回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      6 六月, 2011 於 4:40 下午

      david兄, 都係拿拿聲炒多兩轉, 等爆煲之前都可以儲夠錢過冬 😦 德國人既遠見, 我地可能一世都學唔到

      回應
  8. RC 說道：
    5 六月, 2011 於 10:36 上午

    i got here when i was researching 658. i lost some money and was thinking of getting back in at ~$10. thank you for your comment regarding direct drive technology in wind turbine now i think 658 does not worth even $5 since its tech is no longer competitive.

    You seems to be quite knowledgeable regarding renewable energy. you have pointed out in an earlier post there’s so much uncertainty in solar energy it may not be a good investment theme. my view on solar is also quite dim(pun intended). it will be similar to other high tech investment (LCD panel, RAM etc) , very good for the user, bad for the investors. Why? coz it will not create consistent + cash flow for investors

    high competition -> invest heavily on production method/research -> build bigger better plants -> competitors build even bigger newer plant -> supply>demand -> low margin -> invest even more in research -> build bigger better plants…

    this vicious cycle will repeat again and again. The only exception I can think of is Intel, which has a dominant lead in market share thus dictates the gross margin.

    hope i did not bore you.

    回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      6 六月, 2011 於 5:53 下午

      hi RC, its my pleasure to have you leave comment here 🙂

      the loop you pointed out actually is the barrier of entry for the new comers, many people know the bads of hi tech industry, but only few of them understand the goods.

      from my point of view, the largest risk of a hi tech firm is how it can maintain its technology leadership. high capex is not a problem under the current economy situation as the capital cost is still quite low. if the market recognized your product or technology, the growth will be very explosive.

      because of the cut-throat competition, most of the players will be eliminated when the market is well developed, few strongest players will share most of the market under a low gross profit margin. the situation i much better in the 1st tier player than the other tiers

      the earlier the company join the competition, the higher the chance to become successful. because research is the thing that consume money and time, if the company has more money to spend it may require less time to achieve the same level of other competitors did. but it really takes time to make great thing. there is no fast-pass i believe.

      let’s back to solar energy market, i think it is still quite young, most of the main players are just listed less than 10 years, there is still a long long way for solar to go.

      one of my picks in solar stock is comtec solar (712), i believe it belongs to the first tier player in terms of its technology level and management because it can produce one of the highest conversion rate wafer in China (later when it launches n-type wafer it is getting nearer to the leadership from western, Japanese and korean firms, but their prices are not as attractive than chinese firms), also its GP beats most of the solar firms, the only firms i heard which has higher GP than 712 is GCL-poly which success is based on exceptional management and the capital from the nation.

      if you believe direct-drive is the future of wind turbine tech, 2208 should be the “star of tomorrow", because it bet heavily on that tech, and if the wind energy market performs well again, 2208 is my first choice in HK stock market

      please feel free to leave your comment here RC ching 🙂

      回應
      • RC 說道：
        7 六月, 2011 於 11:17 下午

        What… my post disappeared..

        anyway.

        “现在强制的新能源电源占比低,撬动的杠杆却很大,新能源装机的亏损可以通过火电装机盈利来弥补,这是大型发电企业敢于亏本抢夺新能源资源的根本原因。
        　　另一方面,目前风电整机企业的销售大不如从前,但由于风电资源抢手,包括金风科技在内的一线风电设备供应商已开始从早期风电场勘探环节入手,切入风电资源,然后进一步投资、建设、运营,最后将建设好的风电场整体转让给大型发电企业。
        　　风电设备供应商们敢于以BOT模式运营,看中的就是大型发电企业新能源装机的压力,毕竟风电的装机成本在可再生能源中依然是最低的,所以大型发电企业趋之若鹜。
        　　"现在大型发电企业就是要装机容量,风电场建起来就行,发不发电以后再说,"业内人士表示,"将来减排的摊派指标会更高,完不成就得交高额碳税,因此风电场资产价格持续上涨。"

        http://blog.eastmoney.com/lantianr/blog_140544236.html

        回應
  9. RC 說道：
    7 六月, 2011 於 11:14 下午

    you said the earlier a company enter the market, the higher chance it become successful. I am not too sure this is how it works in the high tech market. ie. microsoft is a relative late comer, but it beats IBM and Apple in the OS market. Intel is also a late comer, it beats IBM and DEC in the PC market. Because of the excitment of “high tech" which naturally attract lots of new comers and competition and there’s high chance a disruptive breakthrough can appear.
    I simply dont have enough knowledge to comment on solar tech. Where can I read more about 712 tech lead?
    Direct drive is definitely the future. A electronic converter (low loss, cheaper, lighter) is far superior to mechanical device (gear), there will be no comparison. The real trouble comes from too much competition. Everybody in china wants to be big big big = low margin, high capex + blood on the street.

    Why do PRC always say 「火電做規模，水電做實力，風電作秀。」?
    “风电竞争日趋激烈,连本有希望取得利润回报的海上风电,如今也已走上低价竞争的末路。对于首轮100万千瓦海上风电超预期的低投标价格,业内人士皆大发感慨–必亏无疑!
    　　国有大型发电企业的低价抢滩有其内在驱动力:国家发改委曾对新能源在电源结构中的占比做出强制规定,该比例的存在意味着,将来想申请更多的火电装机,就必须先提高新能源装机规模,而新能源装机的亏损可以通过火电装机盈利来弥补。"…

    is this the reason??
    ….
    “现在强制的新能源电源占比低,撬动的杠杆却很大,新能源装机的亏损可以通过火电装机盈利来弥补,这是大型发电企业敢于亏本抢夺新能源资源的根本原因。
    　　另一方面,目前风电整机企业的销售大不如从前,但由于风电资源抢手,包括金风科技在内的一线风电设备供应商已开始从早期风电场勘探环节入手,切入风电资源,然后进一步投资、建设、运营,最后将建设好的风电场整体转让给大型发电企业。
    　　风电设备供应商们敢于以BOT模式运营,看中的就是大型发电企业新能源装机的压力,毕竟风电的装机成本在可再生能源中依然是最低的,所以大型发电企业趋之若鹜。
    　　"现在大型发电企业就是要装机容量,风电场建起来就行,发不发电以后再说,"业内人士表示,"将来减排的摊派指标会更高,完不成就得交高额碳税,因此风电场资产价格持续上涨。"

    twist in demand? is this sustainable? is the same thing happening w/ solar?

    http://blog.eastmoney.com/lantianr/blog_140544236.html

    回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      8 六月, 2011 於 3:21 上午

      Hi RC, thank you for sharing this news to us, it updates me about the wind energy market.

      just simply google “IBM Microsoft", I found this link in first page of results:
      http://inventors.about.com/library/weekly/aa033099.htm

      the article said Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates was approached by IBM to develop the OS for its new Personal Computer. Consider the whole history of computer, Microsoft is not as old as IBM, but when considering the Personal Computer Era, it is one of the important pioneers like Apple and Intel

      intel is also younger than IBM, but I think their relationship is co-operation rather than competition (i know IBM has its own CPU but for the common PC market, IBM did not promote its CPU but choosing Intel, i dunno the reason though), the first mass

      all the late comers above are actually the pioneer of their industry, if we move forward to the internet era, Google is much younger than the mentioned giants but it did create some important tech in search engine and promote cloud computing that none of these giants have achieved before.

      I cannot say Intel is the new comer because there is IBM, and Microsoft is another new comer and also the Google. Actually, besides google, all of them are having over 30 years of history. They are still dominate the hi tech industry which is keep developing under fast-paces. I believe google can still maintain its leadership for another decade.

      Most of the hi tech industry are originate from Laboratory, just like internet was created a few ten years ago, but the leaders of internet industry were mainly founded in these 10-20 years. Solar technology was also invented in few decades ago, but it is being extensively adopted in commercial or residential in 2000s. Therefore, from my point of view, the companies which joined the market at the beginning of the bloom i will consider it as the first group. (if the company involved in the experimental stage, i will consider it as pioneer)

      about the tech lead of 712, i grab a link from the official web: http://www.comtecsolar.com/upload/712KM240311.pdf

      this report discuss the development of 712’s n-type wafer, it is a new gen of high conversion rate wafer, only the developed countries possess the tech to produce it like germany and Japan, but the chinese firms plan to launch mass production this year, one of these companies is comtec solar. i believe comtec solar is not the most advance firm globally, but it should be the leader in china (or even in asia when comparing with taiwan and korea) and making good progress to refresh its tech. So, 712 able to provide hi-end wafer with a competitive price.

      solar industry is totally different from wind energy in china market. solar energy still not adopt extensively in china as it is too expensive for chinese, therefore when we study the chinese solar firms we should concentrate on the europe market which shares over the half of the global market.

      the largest drawback of chinese wind energy firms is they dont have the proven history of stable operation of their wind turbines. even they can produce the turbines in the lowest cost, but the reliability is also very important because the maintenance cost comprises a significant part of total cost of the lifetime operation. This is another case we can learn the advantage of early entry, goldwind has the longest history in wind turbine production compared with other main rivals in china including the largest player Sinovel, so goldwind is my first choice if i want to place my bet on chinese firm. also goldwind is the leader in direct-drive tech, it spent heavily on researching of this tech, one of my favourite bloggers “accountboy" pointed out a big advantage of direct-drive, that is the DD wind turbine can operate under low wind speed, which implies that greater area can be adopted.

      another big drawback is the wind turbines cannot connect the grid effectively, thats generates a great loss, people are still looking for solution and one of their hopes is “smart-grid", smart-grid is a big investment concept, if you have the idea let share your view here!

      this is the first time i read about that twisted demand, i hope the chinese govt can amend the policy to stop that situation. it lets me thinking of HK electrical market, HK govt guarantee the profit of the electricity providers at the certain percentage of the capex they spent each year, therefore they invest at a exaggerative amount and built many unused capacity

      the future of chinese wind energy firm is the global market, goldwind is the first one to attempt and also the most aggressive one

      the more successful cases being operated, the faster growth of the firm, the beginning is the hardest time to face, I hope the chinese players can proof themselves with its cost as well as quality

      I am not a pro in hi tech field (nor any other fields :P), I just try my best to share what i know.

      (this comment is long enough for me to make a new blog post :P)

      回應
    • fatlone 說道：
      8 六月, 2011 於 2:45 下午

      hi chunwing, nice to meet u here 🙂

      thank you for your sharing, for me, this is a great news for 712, this has strong implication

      N-type and new western customer hints there is a chance of exposure to new customer base

      comtec solar and CEO John, i think this is the time i buyback my sold portion of 712

      回應
      • Sing 說道：
        8 六月, 2011 於 4:38 下午

        Yes, the CEO is a wisdom man. 712 value dropped today. I hope that I can buy some with cheap price tomorrow.

        回應
        • fatlone 說道：
          8 六月, 2011 於 5:35 下午

          hi sing 兄, 712個value升左, 但個stock price又大跌, 儲定子彈, 慢慢吸, 我地今次又準備係712身上贏鋪勁, 我地先前已經有過一次經驗, 到左依家大家都好熟行, 等我地呢班太陽能長期關注者話畀人知, 的確有一班老散可以從太陽能股身上贏到一個唔錯既數目, 而唔係得個概念既廢股

          忽然有D感慨添 🙂

          回應
    • Gary 說道：
      9 六月, 2011 於 1:58 下午

      嘩, 好消息, 我忍左手甘耐無入貨, 睇來開始要準備定了

      回應

  12. 引用通告： fatlone’s view: tech’s talk about renewable energy (wind and solar) | fatlone's investment paradise

  13. 引用通告： fatlone’s view: tech’s talk about renewable energy (wind and solar) | fatlone's investment paradise

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