Turnaround第二擊!今次係江西銅業股份(358)

呢隻,再次係抄RF筆兄嘅飛,我其實好感激佢。

入正題,講下有乜catalysts

其實就係今日呢單嘢再次喚起我對江銅嘅興趣(之前嗰次係筆兄有貼過銅價嘅消息)

來源:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/copper-climbs-as-chinese-manufacturing-index-rises-lme-preview.html

Copper Climbs as Chinese Manufacturing Index Rises: LME Preview

By Jae Hur – Aug 22, 2013 12:43 PM GMT+0800

Copper led gains in industrial metals after a manufacturing index in China increased in August from an 11-month low, adding to signs the world’s second-biggest economy is stabilizing.

Market News:

Metals News:

Metals Prices:

-- Copper rose 1.1% to $7,320.50 a metric ton on the London
Metal Exchange. Relative strength index 61.
-- Aluminum gained 0.6% to $1,907.50 a ton. RSI 61.
-- Nickel climbed 0.7% to $14,520 a ton. RSI 54.
-- Lead added 0.7% to $2,228 a ton. RSI 65.
-- Tin was up 0.5% at $21,850 a ton. RSI 63.
-- Zinc advanced 0.2% to $1,971.75 a ton. RSI 64.

Other markets:         Last          % Change   % YTD
Bloomberg Dollar Index 1,028.99        +0.22       +4.31
Crude Oil               $103.72        -0.13      +12.96
Gold                  $1,361.53        -0.38      -18.73
MSCI World Index         366.22        -0.34       +7.79

Economic Events:
                                      Survey    Prior      Time
                                                       (London)
Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing    Aug      50.7     50.3      9:00
Euro-zone PMI Services         Aug      50.2     49.8      9:00
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims    Aug 17   330K     320K     13:30
U.S. Continuing Claims         Aug 10  2963K    2969K     13:30
U.S. House Price Index MoM     Jun      0.6%     0.7%     14:00

================================================================

而WSJ有篇詳盡嘅報道:

來源:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323980604579027171041071610.html

August 21, 2013, 8:20 p.m. ET

Copper Displays Strength

Higher Prices Follow Optimism About Demand and Economic Growth Overseas

The downtrodden copper market is showing signs of a turnaround amid a brightening economic outlook for the world’s two biggest consumers of the metal, China and Europe.

A flurry of relatively strong readings from the manufacturing and industrial sectors in both places has prompted many investors and analysts to revise global-consumption estimates for copper upward in recent weeks.

image

Bloomberg News

Prices of copper are up 9% since July 30. Above, copper cathode sheets in electrolytic tanks in Serbia.

The optimism about demand for copper, which is used in everything from smartphones to refrigerators to cars, has driven prices in the $100 billion futures market up 9% since July 30. Although prices have wavered in recent days amid nervousness about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, copper’s recent strength stands in contrast to its performance in the first half of the year, when prices sank 16%.

On Wednesday, copper futures for August delivery fell 0.8%, or 2.8 cents, to $3.3115 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices remain near two-month highs reached on Friday.

Hedge funds and other money managers as a group turned bullish on copper last week for the first time since February, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They had 7,041 more bets on copper prices rising than wagers on prices falling as of Aug. 13. In early April, investors were betting 38,951 contracts—a record high since at least 2006—in the opposite direction.

“Investors have turned more positive on growth—it’s as simple as that," says Clive Burstow, portfolio manager of Baring Asset Management’s $11.3 million Global Mining Fund. Mr. Burstow recently has boosted his exposure to copper by buying shares of copper-mining companies.

A surprise expansion in manufacturing activity in July in China, the world’s biggest copper consumer and importer, gave the rally its jump-start. The market maintained momentum as the latest Chinese trade and industrial-production data beat expectations and as the euro zone last week reported its first quarterly gain in gross domestic product since 2011.

MI-BY023_MKTLED_G_20130821175704

China’s manufacturing report was a “huge turning point for copper," says Jason Rotman, president of Lido Isle Advisors, a commodities investment-management firm in Newport Beach, Calif. Mr. Rotman said the firm began placing bets on higher copper prices shortly after the manufacturing data was released.

To be sure, some say an onslaught of copper production from new mines—a factor in the selloff in the first half of the year—could continue to cause headwinds for prices. Global mine output in the second quarter was up 8.4% from the same period in 2012, Citigroup analysts said in a note, the fifth straight quarter in which production beat year-earlier levels.

And there is potential for the next ream of Chinese economic data to disappoint. A preliminary reading on the country’s manufacturing activity in August is slated for release on Thursday.

Analysts with Credit Suisse said in a note on Tuesday that copper supply will likely exceed demand in the months ahead, citing the chance that this summer’s gains in demand from Chinese auto makers and home builders will prove fleeting.

“Reading too much into one month’s data can be misleading," the analysts wrote.

Still, bullish investors point out that, not only are copper-demand forecasts being raised, but supplies already are tightening.

Copper stockpiles held in warehouses certified by the London Metal Exchange have declined 16% since late June, a sign of increased demand from manufacturers.

Rising investment in copper-heavy projects such as providing electricity to rural areas and railway expansion mean China’s refined copper consumption is set to rise 9.1% this year, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate, up from 5% growth in 2012. They expect copper supply to exceed demand by just 53,300 metric tons this year, down from projections for a 124,400 ton surplus at the start of the year.

“Copper’s resilience suggests that the worst is behind us," says Sameer Samana, a senior international strategist with Wells Fargo Advisors, which manages about $1.3 trillion in assets. “If China was really in as bad of a shape as people have been saying, you would have seen a much bigger pullback" in copper and other industrial metals.

========================================

圖其實都不錯,不過我又講唔出點解不錯,總之就係覺得佢仲有得升,我一向都唔準㗎啦,睇下966就知(唉⋯⋯)

我覺得,純粹9UP咁講,短期1蚊幾毫嘅升幅機會是不少⋯⋯

我覺得呢排尐資源股已經郁咗一段短時間,如果呢個時候仲唔上車,我覺得之後去到「火棒傳遞區」先諗買唔買,第一輸嘅當然係價位,但呢點其實唔緊要,注碼先係最緊要,升到RSI過70樓上,你仲敢唔敢大注渣落去?你唔敢大注渣,已經限制咗你嘅POTENTIAL PROFIT。當然,你唔昅實個市,慢幾怕先留意到,咁只能再努力尐啦~

358-6M-DayChart_20130822

================================================================

最後,想share埋呢篇收錄在湯財文庫嘅轉載,觀點係我完全無諗過(其實我好多嘢都無諗過,無乜咁大不了,哈哈~)又學多樣嘢~

來源:http://realblog.zkiz.com/greatsoup38/58683

[神州股票資訊]F T:銅市轉牛跡象——廢銅緊缺

@ 2013-06-15 18:00:48

http://wallstreetcn.com/node/25741

FT市場早就預期銅價將走弱,因為世界銅礦的產量上升。但看空銅價的投資者可能一直忽略了一個相當重要的銅礦:城市的廢銅。

舊空調、汽車和建築上的銅線和銅管,工業用銅切割剩下的邊料,構成了銅的重要來源,但經常被忽視。

根據國際銅研究集團的數據,廢銅佔了全球銅用量的約1/3。2009年產業活動萎縮導致銅價大跌的時候,廢銅突然從全球市場中消失,幫助了銅價從谷底反彈。

現在,交易員表示,類似的情況正在發生。可用的廢銅大幅下滑,已經吸引了對沖基金和貿易商的注意,這使得他們看多銅價走勢,雖然面對眾多不利於大宗商品的負面消息。

一名商品對沖基金經理表示:「廢銅可能是我們現在傾向於看好銅市的關鍵原因。」

就算基於不透明的金屬市場的標準,廢銅市場的數據也是出了名的粗略的。但在過去三個月,中國的廢銅進口已經比一年前同期下跌了14%。一些交易員和分析師估計,全球市場可用的廢銅今年可能會減少高達15-20%。

這與2009年的廢銅供應下滑幅度無法相比,但如果他們的估算是正確的,那麼這對銅市的影響仍是相當巨大的。

每年約有360萬噸在LME上交易的精銅,是由廢銅生產的。這意味著,廢銅減少10-20%,將減少全球市場銅供應36-72萬噸——這相當於管理了全球最大的銅礦之一。

另一方面,在幾個月前,業界的共識是,今年全球銅將出現30-50萬噸的供過於求。

中國一家大型銅冶煉廠的高管表示:「廢銅的短缺,意味著市場將更為平衡,而不是供應過剩。」

廢銅供應下滑的主要原因是,全球製造業活動過去幾個月的萎靡狀態,這意味著工廠產生的邊料減少了。同時,全球大部分地區增長停滯意味著,越來越少人廢棄舊的空調和汽車。

此外,銅價從今年2月超過8000美元/噸下滑至4月6800美元/噸,已經導致一些廢銅交易商選擇囤貨。

這些因素加在一起,導致了中國的銅冶煉廠集體囤積廢銅。

世界最大的上市廢銅商行Sims Metal Management亞洲主席Michael Lion表示,一些存在廣泛交易的高品位廢銅對倫銅價格的折讓,已經跌至了數年來的最低水平。

市場已經感受到廢銅短缺的影響,特別是中國市場,中國不斷擴張的銅冶煉產業,使中國佔了世界廢銅進口的60%。

巴克萊金屬分析師Gayle Berry表示,市場的壓力還會進一步放大,因為中國的冶煉廠要求一定比重的廢銅,才能避免它們處理低品位銅礦石時不會出現過熱的情況。

在過去六個星期裡,中國三家最大的銅冶煉廠——江西銅業、金川集團和云南銅業都因為廢銅短缺,合共關閉了每年40萬噸的產能。

廢銅市場的緊張,也剛好遇上市場的一些其它變化,使得交易員變得更為看好銅市。

第一,世界的幾家大型銅礦都出現了供應中斷的情況。第二,最近的銅價下跌已經刺激中國的貿易商和銅消費客戶囤積銅。最後,中國具有巨大影響力的國家儲備局最近幾週也在諮詢關於購買銅收儲的事情。

高盛經濟學家Layton表示:「廢銅市場的發展對銅價有支持作用。但單純的廢銅緊缺並不能驅動銅市向牛市的實質性扭轉。」

廣告
張貼在 , 個股研究 | 標記 | 1 則迴響

跌市有乜好撈?我會揀宏利(945)

曾經講過,跌市要更加畀心機研究股票,因為,既然唔買貨住,就要把握時間做功課(對我嚟講就是努力「抄飛」啦!),到出擊嘅時候就可以快速決定。(BTW: 今日,真係好傷⋯⋯)

我自己個炒炒炒倉,未必會買,但宏利(945)一定係我今浪跌市夠薑去幫屋企人去撈嘅目標。

點解咁有信心?因為保險股專家「市場先生」之前曾經寫過嘅呢篇文:

來源:http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/finance/20130409/00539_001.html

Market Share:股價跟着孳息走

保險公司的業績甚至股價很受兩個市場因素影響,分別是股市表現和利率水平。有人問筆者內險公司總投資資產當中,通常股票類資產只佔10%,為何A股升跌,對盈利表現影響如此大?

筆者舉例說明,假設保險公司A有100億元投資資產,當中90%即90億元投資於債券和銀行存款,如果平均年收益率為4.5%,表示每年淨投資收益有4.05億元。另外10%即10億元投資於A股市場。如果A股下跌15%,表示有1.5億元的投資虧損,總投資收益會因此減少37%至只有2.55億元,相反如果A股上升15%,總投資收益會因此增加37%至5.55億元,由此可見,股權類投資佔比雖小,但對投資收益影響卻很大。

利率升跌影響深遠

不過,如果論到影響的長遠和範圍的深廣度,始終是利率這個重要因素。因它影響到保單的定價,準備金的計提,現有業務和新業務的內含價值等等,由理賠事件的發生到賠償金額真正支付給客戶,通常需要一段時間,期間的利率愈高,投資收益以致保險公司的利潤就愈大。

有研究發現,宏利(00945)的股價表現同美國10年期國庫債券的孳息率有密切的關係。一二年七月二十四日美國十年期國庫債券的孳息率為1.39%,之後一直上升至今年三月十一日的2.06%,宏利於一二年七月二十四日的股價為79.05元,於今年三月十一日的股價為116.3元,股價升幅有47%。

然而隨着塞浦路斯金融危機的發生,美國國庫債券再次成為資金避險的工具,十年期國庫債券的孳息率也迅速下跌至執筆之時的1.77%,因此,雖然近期美股一再節節上升,屢創新高,但宏利股價卻未能受惠,反而從年內高位下跌9%。

利率下跌對宏利的影響是多方面。第一,盈餘再投資的收益會下跌,第二,靈活對沖和整合對沖的成本會增加,理由不難明白,利率由5%下降一百點子是跌了20%,但利率由4%下降一百點子是跌了25%,同樣是下降一百點子,利率水平愈低影響愈顯著。第三,利率下跌至某個水平會導致保單負債估值需轉入另一個再投資情景,因而產生較高儲備金額。第四,新做業務壓力將會增加,直到產品重新定價。第五,對最低持續資本有負面影響,因為利率下降會導致法定資本增加。

宏利難敵全球大勢

事實上,宏利一二年業績報告顯示,期內由於下調保單負債估值精算假設的定息再投資回報率,以及定息最終再投資回報率,相關虧損和撥備分別達到7.4億加元和6.77億加元,相對全年盈利只有17.36億加元可謂舉足輕重。

此外,管理層於業績報告指出,如果今年的利率維持在一二年底的水平(註:當時十年期和三十年期美國國庫債券的孳息率分別為1.76%和2.95%),則預計今年需要撥備4億加元。幸好,集團成功將利率下降一百點子對股東季度收入淨額的敏感度由一一年的10億加元下降至4億加元,顯示管理層已盡了相當努力,但難敵全球低息的大環境。

================================================================

紅色字是我個人highlight的,這一段解釋了我覺得宏利值搏的原因。

你睇下呢幾日10年國債個yield升得幾急?(不過我打緊呢篇文嗰陣就跌緊,但係都比起兩三個星期之前升咗不少)

US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND

唔賭10年國債債息,賭佢加息就更加吸引。因為宏利最大利淡因素係低息。一旦加息,我好有信心就算股市會唔好,宏利解除低息咗呢一重枷鎖,我覺得佢會重展2002年第三季直至07年見頂嗰段超靚升浪,而可能依家已經行緊。

大家可以去webb哥嘅total return睇下宏利02至07年嗰段升浪有幾靚仔,45度角,升足4年幾啊!:
http://webb-site.com/dbpub/str.asp?i=2396

中糧包裝(906)我曾經講過佢係悶悶地驘之選,而結果係我睇錯。今日,945宏利我有信心是真正嘅悶悶地驘之選。信大TREND是會加息的話,無理由唔買945。我認為有945鎮住個倉,衰極有個譜。而宏利是會派息嘅股票,仲要係每個季度咁派,一年足有4次慰問金,坐得更開心。

希望今季可以突破138蚊關。

張貼在 , 個股研究, 個股跟進 | 標記 , | 發表留言

中國太平(966),TURNAROUND!

有Real Forum實在不愁無股炒,如果上次隻德林國際(1126)要credit雪球高手李沉疴,咁呢隻我會credit RF嘅筆兄。

好,客套話講完,講催化劑:

1)注資

來源:http://finance.sina.com.hk/news/-35000-5901590/1.html

some extracts:

中國太平將以每股15.39元發行8.63億股,作為支付有關收購代價。

中國太平於週一中午停牌前股價收報12.36元,有關新股發行價溢價高達24.5%。

有關新股發行量約佔發行代價股份擴大後的公司已發行股本33.6%。

注資後太平集團於中國太平持股量將由53.27%上升至68.96%;市場流通量,即其他股東股權則由46.73%下降至31.04%。

$15.39是大股東印公仔紙畀自己嘅代價。除非擺落去件嘢係垃圾,否則拉長少少去睇,$15.39以下既價位估值會有個譜。我純粹亂UP,我覺得公司有大動作,股價之後會有大TREND出現。但呢個「之後」是幾耐,我不知道,只知道以上最後交易完成期限是2014年底。我相信2014年若非甚麼金融海嘯再現,回頭望呢個價都可能好抵買都未定,但2014年底仲有差不多年半,世事難料啊⋯⋯

2)業績改善

來源:http://www.hkej.com/template/onlinenews/jsp/detail.jsp?title_id=156910

中國太平附屬首7月保費收入增60%

中國太平保險控股(00966)公布,旗下太平人壽、太平財險及太平養老於今年1月至7月期間的累計保費收入,分別為約349.81億元(人民幣‧下同)、約61.15億元及7.75億元,合共418.7億元。

至於與2012年同期的約212.73億元、約42.71億元及5.47億元,合共約260.92相比,按年分別增長64.43%、43.16%、41.58%及60.47%。

呢一點,我個人就覺得一半半,因為佢到呢一刻都未出盈喜,佢27日就出業績,我諗即係無盈喜。保費增速係強,營收大咗但個MARGIN可唔可以保持住?ANYWAY,起碼我覺得倒退既機會可以降低。業績我唔識睇,我只係睇A股嘅反彈可以令佢未來業績看好,我賭的偏向其PROSPECT。大家都係賭「A股好,內險股好」㗎啦?

3)基金經理劉國傑11蚊增持

詳見港交所披露

first state 即是首域,劉國傑GOOGLE下都知佢是堅料。

其實以上嘅看法,RF嘅鉛筆兄已經一早講咗,我只係再GOOGLE返尐資料放上呢度「呃POST」。所以,credit 應該歸佢。

========================================

言而⋯⋯佢出現在此博上是其TA面其實都幾SEXY⋯⋯

DOWNSIDE真的有限,我唔覺得12蚊樓下買會輸到跳樓。但UPSIDE,自己睇圖感受下。

好明顯,依家仲係底部,隻股係底部嘅時候,實有好多DEFECTS,但是,當隻股已經個個都知佢好嘅時候,就一定好貴,當然,貴既貨可以貴落去⋯⋯不過一旦逆勢,就會可以好大鑊。

以我嘅小學雞式嘅圖表分析,966真係好有FEEL⋯⋯至於尐圓圈箭咀點講,你自己FEEL下吧⋯⋯

螢幕快照 2013-08-17 下午06.22.42

保險股實在太難分析,我都「無貨可賣」喇。港股中最熟保險股嘅博客首推「市場先生」,有問題可以問佢,又或者唔嫌棄嘅,可以留言分享你嘅見解,因為,可能會有另外嘅高手踩場交換心得都未定!

========================================

題外話:

其實我一直想講下注碼問題,因為,其他有disclose自己個倉同埋回報嘅bloggers, 回報好似都唔太理想,我近來風格已經轉為炒賣型,注碼真係決定勝負。

老實講,見到尐BLOGGER渣住十幾二十隻股而全部都好平均咁分散,就知佢表現大約係點,除非個倉真係大到成5球以上,焗住要分散。例如,1126,我如果個倉有500萬,用十分一倉位50萬買落去我都唔敢。真係怕走唔到)

如果你覺得我呢尐炒炒炒到頭來都只會得個桔,甚至要輸都瞓街,我無所謂的,因為戶口個數字最公道,佢會話你知你啱定錯。

唔係個BLOGGER回報低佢寫嘅嘢就無價值,我從佢地身上都學到好多嘢,有時某尐個股佢地嘅分析我唔認同,但佢地提供到好好嘅資料畀我好快咁了解間公司,所以我對呢班無私嘅博客講聲多謝。因為,昔日嘅我用心鑽研再分享上黎嘅風格應該唔會再係呢度出現。我唔係否定深入鑽研個股呢個做法,而係我見到網路上有太多高手比我好,而又有咁多好股可以炒,我決定自私尐,暫時唔再contribute content,而是consume 呢尐content,不過,背後點樣解讀無數嘅content,都同樣值錢。

唔覺唔覺又吹咗咁多隻字~ 我其實仲有好多嘢可以吹㗎,留返下次先~

張貼在 個股研究 | 標記 | 14 則迴響

德林國際(1126)之雙「熊」出海

(先講一下題外話:這個博客已經不像以前的長篇大論式的「所謂」分析,希望取而代之就是集中分析潛在的股價催化劑,而這些催化劑是不久的將來會出現(這裡暫時的定義是最長2個季度),而這些催化劑是直接對該個股有正面影響,而不是籠統地例如「中國城鎮化帶來的機遇」、「量化寬鬆引致甚麼甚麼」這些萬能KEY式的無聊廢話。於我而言,炒股是落場「打真軍」的博奕,分析一定要到位,對與錯會直接反映在戶口數字上。暫時講到這裡。)

言歸正傳。

德林國際(1126),香港玩具股。近日對佢「有些感覺」。

得益於「鬆弛熊」,業績有翻身之勢。而除了「鬆弛熊」,迪士尼出品的「達菲熊」(DUFFY)聽聞銷情都相當不俗。

這2隻熊就是催化劑。

OK,fatlone,上網一GOOGLE就搵到啦,仲使你講?其實,我都係單純憑感覺覺得呢2隻熊仔仲可以將1126推高,我自己看過這兩隻熊公仔的人氣真的不錯。

彩星玩具(869)可以憑忍者龜單天保至尊,為何1126就不可以?我明白我以上的文字絕無分析可言,我純粹認為,這些公仔(以據我GOOGLE的資訊)的熱賣程度,對比起這間公司的估值(都是看看其他網友對其現金流,淨現金,P/E等等的數字評論作依據),看來仍有得去。要知道,這些廠等的就是一個機會,機會來臨很大機會要炒它一把。

2013年報說日元貶值15﹪只對其盈利減少1.238百萬,不到純利的1﹪。所以,即使重點關注的「雙熊」所在的主要市場是在日本,不太因為弱日元而出事。反之,或者因為弱日元而可能刺激的銷量更會是潛在利好。

最後,亦都是我相信1126值搏的原因是因為我相信這篇雪球網高手李沉疴的分析

(highlight是我個人認為值得關注的部份)

德林国际,被低估的黑马。

自从11年3月日本海啸起就关注德林国际,因彼时东京迪斯尼关闭—-它是德林国际的主要产品—-毛绒玩的的主要客户。市场给予期极低的估值,从最高点2.4附近一路来到去年5月底的0.35。这一段时间,也是整个中国玩具产业地狱般博杀的一年。我在那段时间以均价0.45吸货,至12年9月以0.54出清,旋即又悔棋,以0.55悉数买回。其原因在于,12年9月的显示了强劲的同比增长。在玩具这种红海行业,是容易出沙漠之花的,一如纺织行业的天虹。从12年9月的情况来看,德林不但已经随着东京迪斯尼的恢复营业而收复失地,更是逆行业收缩之势录得增长。而作为长期高现金盈余、高派息的企业,能以稳键的作风录得不俗的增长,尤为难得。这是因为,经过一两年惨烈的博杀,国内玩具业有不少标杆性的企业破产,由此让出的市场份额显然被德林拿去一大块—-沙漠之花的特点是:这一个领域养份很少,但所有的养份全归我独占。更难得的是,在现金为王的经济危机中,它现金充裕,并提出了扩产计划—-在越南扩产,时机稳准狠,危机中各种资源廉价,地点得天独厚,正是劳动力最便宜且素质相对较高的地方。

12年1–6月,德林的每股净利为6.4港仙,考虑到德林正处于收复失地独占沙漠的过程中,且德林的半年营业额还没有达到2010年中报时的高点,所以可以认为,不出意外的话,13年中报德林至少可以维持6.4仙的半年每股净利。同时,德林还隐含一个爆发点:
德林国际2012年11月12日公告其巴西客户将订单改为600万美元并声明該訂單已定於二零一二年十二月至二零一三年一月間付運。也就是说有4733万港元的收入将在12年12月至13年1月间入帐。查看德林的12年业绩公告,全年共在南美地区录得收入1060万港帀。即便这1060万全属于巴西的那笔订单,那么还有4733-1060=3673万港元将在13年1月入帐,这将反映在13年的中报中。而巴西是德林新开拓的客户,以前一直出公告说与巴西客户有意向订单,但这是第一次实实在在的交易、货物付运,可以入帐的。德林是个固定成本很高的公司,这些财务成本、行政成本等等在历史上并没有因为营收的增减而有明显变化,这也是固定成本的特点,因此可以认为今年也不会变化。那么这笔今年1月入帐的巴西订单,可以认为其毛利就等于纯利。参考德林一向来比较稳定的毛利率,这笔巴西订单反映在13年中报中可以带来额外的1.3港仙/股的净利。

联系到前面讲的,”如果不出意外的话,13年中报德林至少可以维持6.4港仙的每股净利“,再加上巴西订单额外的每股1.3港仙的净利,则13年中报德林至少可达到7.7港仙的每股净利,按年增长20%.

这还没有算德林正在积极开拓毛利较高的俄罗斯市场。也没有算今年日本东京迪斯尼游客创新高的情况。实际上,将这些因素计入,个人估计中报可见德林每股净利8港仙,按年增长25%。

而12年全年为每股净利19港仙,按增上述25%的增长率年化,可得13年每股净利24港仙,即2013年下半年每股净利为16港仙,是上半年的2倍,符合历史上的上下半年淡旺季对比数据。按工业股6倍的动态市盈率,则德林的目标价应为1.44。
假如中报出来果然如我所料每股净利8港仙,则其1.44港元的应有股价得到证实,这个价格会立即达到,对比现价有将近26%的升幅。再等两个月就能赚到这样的升幅,不说它黑马谁能相信?

以上观点仅供参考,据此操作风险自负。

張貼在 , 個股研究, 投資心得 | 標記 , | 18 則迴響

中國要開始要加水價嗎?

今早看到中國水業(1129)的自願性公告,說旗下的供水業務要加價。作為港股中最大的中國水務股北控水務(371),亦有機會加價嗎?

公告來源: http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2013/0724/LTN20130724377_C.pdf

(於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司)

(股份代號:1129) 自願公告

調升供水價格

本 公 告 乃 由 中 國 水 業 集 團 有 限 公 司 ( 「 本 公 司 」, 連 同 其 附 屬 公 司 統 稱 「 本 集 團 」 ) 作出之自願公告。

本公司董事會宣佈於二零一三年七月二十三日,中華人民共和國江西省鷹潭市 發展和改革委員會已批准由二零一三年九月一日起調升鷹潭市供水價格。供水 價格包括:(a)居民生活用水將由每噸人民幣1.00元調升至人民幣1.25元;(b)非居 民生活用水(包括行政、工業及營運服務單位用水)價格將為每噸人民幣1.88元; 及(c)特殊行業用水將由每噸人民幣5.50元調升至人民幣6.00元。

鷹潭市供水有限公司(「鷹潭供水」)現時從事供水業務,向鷹潭市居民供應食水。 於本公告日期,本公司之間接全資附屬公司中國水業(香港)有限公司持有鷹潭 供水全部已發行股本之51%權益。

上述供水價格調升對本集團之財政狀況之影響尚待審計,可能會或可能不會對 本集團之財政狀況造成重大影響。

本公司股東及潛在投資者在買賣本公司股份時務請審慎行事。

本公告乃承董事會之命而刊發,各董事願對本公告所載資料之準確性個別及共 同承擔責任。

香港,二零一三年七月二十四日

張貼在 個股跟進, 水利股 | 標記 , | 2 則迴響

[轉載] Homebuilder confidence and sales outlook soar

US homebuilders are one of my monitoring sectors. I believe they are having a more promising future than the chinese property developers. New home sales in US has been consistently recovering. See 創科實業 (669:HK) performance, it is testing the historical high. We should pay special attention to this kind of record-breaking stocks. especially for those can break the long term high.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/16/homebuilder-confidence-july/2520939/

Alex Veiga, AP Real Estate Writer11:08 a.m. EDT July 16, 2013

U.S. homebuilders are feeling more optimistic about their home sales prospects than they have in more than seven years, a trend that suggests home construction will accelerate in coming months.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Tuesday jumped to 57 this month from 51 in June. It was the third consecutive monthly gain.

A reading above 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions as good, rather than poor. The index hasn’t been that high since January 2006, well before the housing market crashed.

Measures of customer traffic, current sales conditions and builders’ outlook for single-family home sales over the next six months vaulted to their highest levels in at least seven years.

“Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten," said David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist.

The latest confidence index, based on responses from 281 builders, points to continued improvement for new home construction, which remains a key source of growth for the economy.

Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cited housing gains as a major reason the Fed’s economic outlook has brightened.

Steady hiring and low mortgage rates have encouraged more people to buy homes over the past year. But the inventory of previously occupied homes on the market has declined sharply in many markets. On a national level, it was down 10% in May from prior-year levels as sales rose to an annual rate of 5.18 million.

With demand up, prices rising and few homes on the market, builders have grown more optimistic about their prospects, stepping up construction. In May, builders applied for permits to build single-family homes at the fastest pace in five years.

Meanwhile, sales of new homes climbed in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000, the fastest pace in five years. That’s still below the 700,000 annual rate that’s considered healthy by most economists, but the pace has increased 29% from a year ago.

Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to NAHB statistics.

In the latest builder survey, a gauge of current sales conditions for single-family homes jumped five points to 60, the highest level since February 2006, while a measure of traffic by prospective buyers improved five points to 45. It hasn’t been that high since November 2005.

Builders’ outlook for single-family home sales over the next six months increased seven points to 67, the highest reading since October 2005.

On a regional basis, confidence grew across the board, but posted the strongest among builders in the Midwest.

張貼在 | 標記 , , , , , , | 發表留言

Sony (SNE),皇者再臨

SNE,我相信你會是comeback kid, 我會用實際行動投票。風水輪流轉,先是蘋果,繼而三星,今年就是Sony了(總是不習慣「索尼」這個名字)

看到這個消息,我知道我下一步要如何應對

(利申:現時持有SNE長倉。)

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-07/12/content_16765298.htm

Foreign game console ban to be lifted

Updated: 2013-07-12 02:47

By SHEN JINGTING (China Daily)

Companies would have to register in Shanghai’s FTZ for eligibility

Sources from China’s Ministry of Culture confirmed on Thursday that the country is about to allow foreign game console companies to sell products in China if they register in Shanghai’s new free trade zone, but denied lifting a decade-long ban on the video game hardware market in the country anytime soon.

Two officials from the ministry confirmed the accuracy of a South China Morning Post report. The story, which was published on Wednesday, quoted sources that if foreign companies agreed to register in the new free trade zone in Shanghai, they would be allowed to promote and sell their products on the Chinese mainland.

But before they start selling, foreign gaming companies have to seek approval for specific products from related regulators because the Chinese government wants to make sure the content is not too violent or politically sensitive, the SCMP report said.

“The detailed information (on foreign game console companies’ entry into China) is incorporated in the policy package for Shanghai’s free trade zone," an official with the Ministry of Culture told China Daily on condition of anonymity However, the Chinese government has yet to officially release the complete documents.

On July 3, the State Council, China’s cabinet, approved Shanghai’s free trade zone. It will cover 28 square kilometers and act as an experiment for deepening reform and opening-up.

“We will track the progress made in this Shanghai pilot program. No one doubts that Shanghai’s performance will determine our future moves," the ministry source said. The source denied the Shanghai trial is a hint about the lifting of China’s ban on video game hardware. “The ban is still effective," the source pointed out.

Because of fears of the potential harm to the physical and mental development of the young, seven Chinese ministries collectively banned the manufacture, sale and import of game consoles in China in 2000.

Major game console vendors across the world, including Microsoft Corp, Nintendo Co and Sony Corp, made several attempts but failed to find a way to enter the Chinese mainland market officially.

In a January interview with China Daily, an official from the Ministry of Culture disclosed the Chinese government was reviewing the policy and had held discussions with other ministries on the possibility of opening up the game console market.

Because the game console ban was issued by seven ministries, China needs to seek approval from all parties to lift it, which will take time, according to some industry insiders.

“The testing of the water in Shanghai is of course an example of major progress made by those ministries," the source said.

Microsoft did not respond to China Daily’s interview requests by deadline on Thursday. The paper failed to reach Sony and Nintendo’s news departments on the same day.

Xue Yongfeng, an analyst with Beijing-based research firm Analysys International, said all major game console suppliers are keen to lobby China to open up its market. “The global game console market has experienced flat growth in recent years. Manufacturers are desperate to find some new revenue drivers — and China, of course, has emerged as a major target," Xue said.

However, the long ban has forced Chinese game players to shift to online games. “There is a limited number of hardcore game console players in China. I think, the player figure is a mere 1 million or so," Xue pointed out.

張貼在 , fatlone's view, 個股研究, 個股跟進 | 標記 , , | 發表留言