Copper Climbs as Chinese Manufacturing Index Rises: LME Preview

By Jae Hur – Aug 22, 2013 12:43 PM GMT+0800

Copper led gains in industrial metals after a manufacturing index in China increased in August from an 11-month low, adding to signs the world’s second-biggest economy is stabilizing.

Market News:

Metals News:

Metals Prices:

-- Copper rose 1.1% to $7,320.50 a metric ton on the London
Metal Exchange. Relative strength index 61.
-- Aluminum gained 0.6% to $1,907.50 a ton. RSI 61.
-- Nickel climbed 0.7% to $14,520 a ton. RSI 54.
-- Lead added 0.7% to $2,228 a ton. RSI 65.
-- Tin was up 0.5% at $21,850 a ton. RSI 63.
-- Zinc advanced 0.2% to $1,971.75 a ton. RSI 64.

Other markets:         Last          % Change   % YTD
Bloomberg Dollar Index 1,028.99        +0.22       +4.31
Crude Oil               $103.72        -0.13      +12.96
Gold                  $1,361.53        -0.38      -18.73
MSCI World Index         366.22        -0.34       +7.79

Economic Events:
                                      Survey    Prior      Time
Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing    Aug      50.7     50.3      9:00
Euro-zone PMI Services         Aug      50.2     49.8      9:00
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims    Aug 17   330K     320K     13:30
U.S. Continuing Claims         Aug 10  2963K    2969K     13:30
U.S. House Price Index MoM     Jun      0.6%     0.7%     14:00




August 21, 2013, 8:20 p.m. ET

Copper Displays Strength

Higher Prices Follow Optimism About Demand and Economic Growth Overseas

The downtrodden copper market is showing signs of a turnaround amid a brightening economic outlook for the world’s two biggest consumers of the metal, China and Europe.

A flurry of relatively strong readings from the manufacturing and industrial sectors in both places has prompted many investors and analysts to revise global-consumption estimates for copper upward in recent weeks.


Bloomberg News

Prices of copper are up 9% since July 30. Above, copper cathode sheets in electrolytic tanks in Serbia.

The optimism about demand for copper, which is used in everything from smartphones to refrigerators to cars, has driven prices in the $100 billion futures market up 9% since July 30. Although prices have wavered in recent days amid nervousness about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, copper’s recent strength stands in contrast to its performance in the first half of the year, when prices sank 16%.

On Wednesday, copper futures for August delivery fell 0.8%, or 2.8 cents, to $3.3115 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices remain near two-month highs reached on Friday.

Hedge funds and other money managers as a group turned bullish on copper last week for the first time since February, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They had 7,041 more bets on copper prices rising than wagers on prices falling as of Aug. 13. In early April, investors were betting 38,951 contracts—a record high since at least 2006—in the opposite direction.

“Investors have turned more positive on growth—it’s as simple as that," says Clive Burstow, portfolio manager of Baring Asset Management’s $11.3 million Global Mining Fund. Mr. Burstow recently has boosted his exposure to copper by buying shares of copper-mining companies.

A surprise expansion in manufacturing activity in July in China, the world’s biggest copper consumer and importer, gave the rally its jump-start. The market maintained momentum as the latest Chinese trade and industrial-production data beat expectations and as the euro zone last week reported its first quarterly gain in gross domestic product since 2011.


China’s manufacturing report was a “huge turning point for copper," says Jason Rotman, president of Lido Isle Advisors, a commodities investment-management firm in Newport Beach, Calif. Mr. Rotman said the firm began placing bets on higher copper prices shortly after the manufacturing data was released.

To be sure, some say an onslaught of copper production from new mines—a factor in the selloff in the first half of the year—could continue to cause headwinds for prices. Global mine output in the second quarter was up 8.4% from the same period in 2012, Citigroup analysts said in a note, the fifth straight quarter in which production beat year-earlier levels.

And there is potential for the next ream of Chinese economic data to disappoint. A preliminary reading on the country’s manufacturing activity in August is slated for release on Thursday.

Analysts with Credit Suisse said in a note on Tuesday that copper supply will likely exceed demand in the months ahead, citing the chance that this summer’s gains in demand from Chinese auto makers and home builders will prove fleeting.

“Reading too much into one month’s data can be misleading," the analysts wrote.

Still, bullish investors point out that, not only are copper-demand forecasts being raised, but supplies already are tightening.

Copper stockpiles held in warehouses certified by the London Metal Exchange have declined 16% since late June, a sign of increased demand from manufacturers.

Rising investment in copper-heavy projects such as providing electricity to rural areas and railway expansion mean China’s refined copper consumption is set to rise 9.1% this year, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate, up from 5% growth in 2012. They expect copper supply to exceed demand by just 53,300 metric tons this year, down from projections for a 124,400 ton surplus at the start of the year.

“Copper’s resilience suggests that the worst is behind us," says Sameer Samana, a senior international strategist with Wells Fargo Advisors, which manages about $1.3 trillion in assets. “If China was really in as bad of a shape as people have been saying, you would have seen a much bigger pullback" in copper and other industrial metals.




我覺得呢排尐資源股已經郁咗一段短時間,如果呢個時候仲唔上車,我覺得之後去到「火棒傳遞區」先諗買唔買,第一輸嘅當然係價位,但呢點其實唔緊要,注碼先係最緊要,升到RSI過70樓上,你仲敢唔敢大注渣落去?你唔敢大注渣,已經限制咗你嘅POTENTIAL PROFIT。當然,你唔昅實個市,慢幾怕先留意到,咁只能再努力尐啦~





[神州股票資訊]F T:銅市轉牛跡象——廢銅緊缺

@ 2013-06-15 18:00:48















世界最大的上市廢銅商行Sims Metal Management亞洲主席Michael Lion表示,一些存在廣泛交易的高品位廢銅對倫銅價格的折讓,已經跌至了數年來的最低水平。


巴克萊金屬分析師Gayle Berry表示,市場的壓力還會進一步放大,因為中國的冶煉廠要求一定比重的廢銅,才能避免它們處理低品位銅礦石時不會出現過熱的情況。





張貼在 , 個股研究 | 標記 | 1 則迴響


曾經講過,跌市要更加畀心機研究股票,因為,既然唔買貨住,就要把握時間做功課(對我嚟講就是努力「抄飛」啦!),到出擊嘅時候就可以快速決定。(BTW: 今日,真係好傷⋯⋯)




Market Share:股價跟着孳息走














US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield:


大家可以去webb哥嘅total return睇下宏利02至07年嗰段升浪有幾靚仔,45度角,升足4年幾啊!:



張貼在 , 個股研究, 個股跟進 | 標記 , | 發表留言


有Real Forum實在不愁無股炒,如果上次隻德林國際(1126)要credit雪球高手李沉疴,咁呢隻我會credit RF嘅筆兄。




some extracts:














first state 即是首域,劉國傑GOOGLE下都知佢是堅料。

其實以上嘅看法,RF嘅鉛筆兄已經一早講咗,我只係再GOOGLE返尐資料放上呢度「呃POST」。所以,credit 應該歸佢。






螢幕快照 2013-08-17 下午06.22.42




其實我一直想講下注碼問題,因為,其他有disclose自己個倉同埋回報嘅bloggers, 回報好似都唔太理想,我近來風格已經轉為炒賣型,注碼真係決定勝負。



唔係個BLOGGER回報低佢寫嘅嘢就無價值,我從佢地身上都學到好多嘢,有時某尐個股佢地嘅分析我唔認同,但佢地提供到好好嘅資料畀我好快咁了解間公司,所以我對呢班無私嘅博客講聲多謝。因為,昔日嘅我用心鑽研再分享上黎嘅風格應該唔會再係呢度出現。我唔係否定深入鑽研個股呢個做法,而係我見到網路上有太多高手比我好,而又有咁多好股可以炒,我決定自私尐,暫時唔再contribute content,而是consume 呢尐content,不過,背後點樣解讀無數嘅content,都同樣值錢。

唔覺唔覺又吹咗咁多隻字~ 我其實仲有好多嘢可以吹㗎,留返下次先~

張貼在 個股研究 | 標記 | 14 則迴響



















張貼在 , 個股研究, 投資心得 | 標記 , | 18 則迴響



公告來源: http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2013/0724/LTN20130724377_C.pdf


(股份代號:1129) 自願公告


本 公 告 乃 由 中 國 水 業 集 團 有 限 公 司 ( 「 本 公 司 」, 連 同 其 附 屬 公 司 統 稱 「 本 集 團 」 ) 作出之自願公告。

本公司董事會宣佈於二零一三年七月二十三日,中華人民共和國江西省鷹潭市 發展和改革委員會已批准由二零一三年九月一日起調升鷹潭市供水價格。供水 價格包括:(a)居民生活用水將由每噸人民幣1.00元調升至人民幣1.25元;(b)非居 民生活用水(包括行政、工業及營運服務單位用水)價格將為每噸人民幣1.88元; 及(c)特殊行業用水將由每噸人民幣5.50元調升至人民幣6.00元。

鷹潭市供水有限公司(「鷹潭供水」)現時從事供水業務,向鷹潭市居民供應食水。 於本公告日期,本公司之間接全資附屬公司中國水業(香港)有限公司持有鷹潭 供水全部已發行股本之51%權益。

上述供水價格調升對本集團之財政狀況之影響尚待審計,可能會或可能不會對 本集團之財政狀況造成重大影響。


本公告乃承董事會之命而刊發,各董事願對本公告所載資料之準確性個別及共 同承擔責任。


張貼在 個股跟進, 水利股 | 標記 , | 2 則迴響

[轉載] Homebuilder confidence and sales outlook soar

US homebuilders are one of my monitoring sectors. I believe they are having a more promising future than the chinese property developers. New home sales in US has been consistently recovering. See 創科實業 (669:HK) performance, it is testing the historical high. We should pay special attention to this kind of record-breaking stocks. especially for those can break the long term high.


Alex Veiga, AP Real Estate Writer11:08 a.m. EDT July 16, 2013

U.S. homebuilders are feeling more optimistic about their home sales prospects than they have in more than seven years, a trend that suggests home construction will accelerate in coming months.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Tuesday jumped to 57 this month from 51 in June. It was the third consecutive monthly gain.

A reading above 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions as good, rather than poor. The index hasn’t been that high since January 2006, well before the housing market crashed.

Measures of customer traffic, current sales conditions and builders’ outlook for single-family home sales over the next six months vaulted to their highest levels in at least seven years.

“Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten," said David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist.

The latest confidence index, based on responses from 281 builders, points to continued improvement for new home construction, which remains a key source of growth for the economy.

Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cited housing gains as a major reason the Fed’s economic outlook has brightened.

Steady hiring and low mortgage rates have encouraged more people to buy homes over the past year. But the inventory of previously occupied homes on the market has declined sharply in many markets. On a national level, it was down 10% in May from prior-year levels as sales rose to an annual rate of 5.18 million.

With demand up, prices rising and few homes on the market, builders have grown more optimistic about their prospects, stepping up construction. In May, builders applied for permits to build single-family homes at the fastest pace in five years.

Meanwhile, sales of new homes climbed in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000, the fastest pace in five years. That’s still below the 700,000 annual rate that’s considered healthy by most economists, but the pace has increased 29% from a year ago.

Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to NAHB statistics.

In the latest builder survey, a gauge of current sales conditions for single-family homes jumped five points to 60, the highest level since February 2006, while a measure of traffic by prospective buyers improved five points to 45. It hasn’t been that high since November 2005.

Builders’ outlook for single-family home sales over the next six months increased seven points to 67, the highest reading since October 2005.

On a regional basis, confidence grew across the board, but posted the strongest among builders in the Midwest.

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Sony (SNE),皇者再臨

SNE,我相信你會是comeback kid, 我會用實際行動投票。風水輪流轉,先是蘋果,繼而三星,今年就是Sony了(總是不習慣「索尼」這個名字)




Foreign game console ban to be lifted

Updated: 2013-07-12 02:47

By SHEN JINGTING (China Daily)

Companies would have to register in Shanghai’s FTZ for eligibility

Sources from China’s Ministry of Culture confirmed on Thursday that the country is about to allow foreign game console companies to sell products in China if they register in Shanghai’s new free trade zone, but denied lifting a decade-long ban on the video game hardware market in the country anytime soon.

Two officials from the ministry confirmed the accuracy of a South China Morning Post report. The story, which was published on Wednesday, quoted sources that if foreign companies agreed to register in the new free trade zone in Shanghai, they would be allowed to promote and sell their products on the Chinese mainland.

But before they start selling, foreign gaming companies have to seek approval for specific products from related regulators because the Chinese government wants to make sure the content is not too violent or politically sensitive, the SCMP report said.

“The detailed information (on foreign game console companies’ entry into China) is incorporated in the policy package for Shanghai’s free trade zone," an official with the Ministry of Culture told China Daily on condition of anonymity However, the Chinese government has yet to officially release the complete documents.

On July 3, the State Council, China’s cabinet, approved Shanghai’s free trade zone. It will cover 28 square kilometers and act as an experiment for deepening reform and opening-up.

“We will track the progress made in this Shanghai pilot program. No one doubts that Shanghai’s performance will determine our future moves," the ministry source said. The source denied the Shanghai trial is a hint about the lifting of China’s ban on video game hardware. “The ban is still effective," the source pointed out.

Because of fears of the potential harm to the physical and mental development of the young, seven Chinese ministries collectively banned the manufacture, sale and import of game consoles in China in 2000.

Major game console vendors across the world, including Microsoft Corp, Nintendo Co and Sony Corp, made several attempts but failed to find a way to enter the Chinese mainland market officially.

In a January interview with China Daily, an official from the Ministry of Culture disclosed the Chinese government was reviewing the policy and had held discussions with other ministries on the possibility of opening up the game console market.

Because the game console ban was issued by seven ministries, China needs to seek approval from all parties to lift it, which will take time, according to some industry insiders.

“The testing of the water in Shanghai is of course an example of major progress made by those ministries," the source said.

Microsoft did not respond to China Daily’s interview requests by deadline on Thursday. The paper failed to reach Sony and Nintendo’s news departments on the same day.

Xue Yongfeng, an analyst with Beijing-based research firm Analysys International, said all major game console suppliers are keen to lobby China to open up its market. “The global game console market has experienced flat growth in recent years. Manufacturers are desperate to find some new revenue drivers — and China, of course, has emerged as a major target," Xue said.

However, the long ban has forced Chinese game players to shift to online games. “There is a limited number of hardcore game console players in China. I think, the player figure is a mere 1 million or so," Xue pointed out.

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