Latest 712 report from SBIE (2011 Aug 04)

I want to write something other than comtec solar because the recent market turmoil, but I find this report from SBIE unexpectedly and the prediction from the firm is really out of my expectation, so I want to share it here first.

Report source: Comtec Solar – Short-term earning risk reflected

If the SBIE forecast is correct, Q2 result will be quite disappointing.

One of the stances of grounds is:

With power restriction arising from infrastructure issues in connection withthe new facilities, we would further lower shipment forecast for the year from 454MW to 406MW, where each of Q1 and Q2 sold 50-60MW.

I can’t ignore this information because SBIE may says this because they did a company visit or meeting with management. And this is the most up-to-date report, the reliability should be higher. I seriously concern with the delay of new capacity operation. I will be very disappointed because this 400MW was first planned to have installed at 2010 Q3, and we should expect it started contribution from 2010 Q4, but the fact is till 2011 Q1 it seems there was no (or very few) of this 400MW was being utilized.

The new forecast profit of 1H 2011 is just 105M, noted that the figure in Q1 is 83.5M which means the firm expect 712 only earn 22M in 2011 Q2.

I believe it is the worst case, and I really hope that it is not the answer in the Aug 17’s announcement.

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本篇發表於 卡姆丹克 並標籤為 。將永久鏈結加入書籤。

28 Responses to Latest 712 report from SBIE (2011 Aug 04)

  1. Unknown 說道:

    咁就解倒點解無盈喜

    • fatlone 說道:

      unknown兄, 我怕到真係出左份令人滿意既業績, 都offset唔到大市崩圍既影響

      更何況依家有份咁既report出黎, 話我聽"無電"開唔到工? 呢個真係叫"風險"了…

      • Unknown 說道:

        咁其實目前應該無咩好期望,反彈應該減持

        • fatlone 說道:

          未來呢十個八個交易日應該非常波動, 好多圖派都指熊勢已確認, 市況突然變得咁差, 真係完全估唔到, 估唔到既係S&P竟然在此時發難, 實在唔清楚佢既企圖

          真係hold多D cash為上著

  2. Sing 說道:

    應該暫時轉入 3800 避避風頭

  3. qwe 說道:

    we shouid cut off now?

    • Sing 說道:

      If you hold a lot of stocks, and keep not much cash, you are better to sell some. Fatlone always say CASH is the King.

      • Gary 說道:

        忍左四個月, 都係一滴貨都無入, 但而家個市況甘, 有錢都唔敢入, cash is the king.

        • fatlone 說道:

          原來Gary兄先係高手!

          btw, 今日我覺得可以入, 入1,2手係可以 (假設有至少10手既錢, 都唔算好多啦以依家個2.2X… Orz….)

      • fatlone 說道:

        無錯, Sing兄, 貨多真係唔好搏

        我係一邊入712, 但一邊斬371同其他股票, 因為我要賭, 但又驚, 結果係同乜都唔做差唔多, 因為712係跌最勁果隻…

        我係輸身家既人辦… 不過唯一仲未死得係控制注碼, 越跌越縮, 輸極都有譜, 重傷都好過無命…

      • Gary 說道:

        I’m not la, still have 60% stock, eating shit. I think I may need to cut lose this time.

    • fatlone 說道:

      qwe兄, 我諗去到今日呢個位, 我以712黎講, 我唔會斬啦, 而且, 今日午市都由低位炒返上2毫子, 今日洗到2.01, 痴孖筋, 尐人真係癲左, 我諗金融海嘯都係咁上下, 如果今日2.0X收市, 咪2日跌三成, 咁唔係海嘯係乜? 其實依家都唔好得去邊

  4. Sing 說道:

    我就與你們相反,今日放了一些712,留了一些現金,買了一些3800的輪,我現在的賭性也不少啊!

  5. fatlone 說道:

    是日戰報:

    今日又再沽其他股再加712 (依然用整體減持, 712淨增持既戰術), 其中來自BOCI既經紀牌最積極, 其次為Quam, BOCI有數次掛左單一買盤>100K既盤, 見過一個>300K, Quam試過唔止一次100K

    見有大戶進場, 加上做出V型, 就採取上述戰術, 再押注712, 2.06只接到1手, 因其後急升, 在2.2至2.23分段再「低追」, 同時沽出其餘股票, 帶定頭盔

    返家開返個圖, 如果聽日可以再收窄跌幅, 咁今日既走勢做個鎚頭出黎(其實我唔太曉呢家野…), 有機會係逆轉訊號, 劇本係2.1X見底, 再急彈上返2.6至2.8, 如果市況回穩+業績乎預期, 呢個目標應該係呢10個8個交易日內hit到, 2.2入約有17至27%回報, 如果守得住2.0, 應該會再買多次, 搏17日前hit到2.6

    唔知8月17日, 712既股價會係點…

  6. qwe 說道:

    太阳能太依靠欧洲和美国了

    • fatlone 說道:

      it is the key weakness of solar sector…

      grow depend on the countries with little growth…

      i expect china can give us a little surprise this year, but the most optimistic case is just only add another 2GW (it is just my own prediction, the market consensus is 1 to 1.5 GW), which is far less enough to pick up the lost portions from the west…

      but it is a great news to hear china launches her FiT program

      3800 is the largest beneficial

  7. chunwing0924 說道:

    SBI E2’s report seems haven’t take into account for the contribution of N-type solar wafers in their forecast.

  8. fatlone 說道:

    another 712 report, this time from CICC (initial coverage), released in 2011 July

    http://report.futu.cn/r-140464

    2011 expected EPS = 0.23 RMB (~0.28HKD)

    recommend with a “Buy" rating and give a TP of 3.90 but no timeframe mentioned…

    worth a read because it has analyse the cost structure of 712

    and it pointed out that the n-type wafer targeted to JP and US players which are facing cut-throat competition from China, so, n-type may not be as profitable as we expect.

    keep monitoring…

  9. Sing 說道:

    開唔到

  10. WR 說道:

    Fatlone兄,

    清空走人了,来日方长,折去投资的15%

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