I want to write something other than comtec solar because the recent market turmoil, but I find this report from SBIE unexpectedly and the prediction from the firm is really out of my expectation, so I want to share it here first.
Report source: Comtec Solar – Short-term earning risk reflected
If the SBIE forecast is correct, Q2 result will be quite disappointing.
One of the stances of grounds is:
With power restriction arising from infrastructure issues in connection withthe new facilities, we would further lower shipment forecast for the year from 454MW to 406MW, where each of Q1 and Q2 sold 50-60MW.
I can’t ignore this information because SBIE may says this because they did a company visit or meeting with management. And this is the most up-to-date report, the reliability should be higher. I seriously concern with the delay of new capacity operation. I will be very disappointed because this 400MW was first planned to have installed at 2010 Q3, and we should expect it started contribution from 2010 Q4, but the fact is till 2011 Q1 it seems there was no (or very few) of this 400MW was being utilized.
The new forecast profit of 1H 2011 is just 105M, noted that the figure in Q1 is 83.5M which means the firm expect 712 only earn 22M in 2011 Q2.
I believe it is the worst case, and I really hope that it is not the answer in the Aug 17’s announcement.